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Muş İli ve Çevresinin Depremsellik Parametrelerinin Uzaysal Dağılımı ve Maksimum Magnitüd Değeri

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 135 - 154, 15.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.998195

Abstract

Yapılan çalışmada Muş il merkezli (38.73ºK Enlem ve 41.49ºD Boylam) 200 km yarıçapındaki dairesel alanın depremsellik parametreleri, depremsellik parametrelerinin uzaysal dağılımı ve maksimum magnitüd değeri belirlenmiştir. Bu amaçla 1900-2020 yılları arasında meydana gelen M≥3.0 olan deprem verileri Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü deprem kataloğundan alınmıştır. Depremsellik parametrelerinin belirlenebilmesi ve haritalanabilmesi için çalışma alanı 0.25°Kx0.25°D r=0.25 olacak şekilde 285 alt bölgeye ayrılmıştır. Hesaplama yapılabilen her bir alt alanda Gutenberg-Richter bağıntısındaki “b” katsayısı En Büyük Olasılık Yöntemi kullanılarak, depremsellik parametreleri ise Poisson Modeline göre hesaplanmıştır. Yapılan hesaplamalar sonucunda çalışma alanının 0.60≤b≤0.97 aralığında değişim gösteren nispeten küçük “b” değerleri ile karakterize olduğu görülmüştür. Mw=5.5 ve Mw=6.0 magnitüd değerlerindeki depremlerin tekrarlanma periyotlarının sırası ile 10≤Tr≤290 ve 25≤Tr≤775 aralıklarında değişim gösterdiği belirlenmiştir. Aynı magnitüd değerlerinin 50 ve 100 yıllık zaman dilimleri içerisinde yaratacağı ortalama tehlike oranı değerleri ise yine sırası ile 0.80 ve 0.74 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Çalışma alanının tamamını kapsayacak “mmax” değerinin belirlenebilmesi için yapılan değerlendirmeler sonucunda 7.2≤mmax≤7.3 aralığının olası-güvenilir olduğu bunun için de Kijko-Sellevol-Bayes teorisinin daha uygun olduğu belirlenmiştir.

References

  • Abercrombie, R.E. (1996). The Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes Recorded with Deep Seismometers at Cajon Pass, Southern California. Tectonophys, 261, 1-7.
  • Abramowitz, M., and Stegun, I.A. (1970). Handbook of Mathematical Functions (9th ed.), New York, Dover Publications.
  • Aki, K. (1965). Maximum Likelihood Estimate of b in the Formula logN=a-bM and its Confidence Limits, Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, 43, 237-239.
  • Akyüz, S., Sancar, T., Zabcı, C. (2010). Karlıova Üçlü Eklemi Civarında Göynük Fayı (Bingöl) ve Varto Fayının (Muş) Morfotektoniği Fay Geometrisi ve Kayma Hızı. TÜBİTAK Proje No: 109y/160, İstanbul.
  • Amelung, F. and King, G. (1997). Earthquake Scaling Laws for Creeping and Non-Creeping Faults, Geophysical Research Letters, 24, 507-510.
  • Bath, M. (1983). Earthquake Magnitude-Recent Research and Current Trends, Earth-Science Reviews, 17, 315-398.
  • Bozkurt, E. (2001). Neotectonics of Turkey-a Synthesis, Geodinamica Acta, 14, 3-30.
  • Chouliaras, G. (2009). Seismicity Anomalies Prior to 8 June 2008, Mw=6.4 Earthquake in Western Greece, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9, 327-335.
  • Cramer, H. (1961). Mathematical Methods of Statistics, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Demirci, A. & Ekinci, Y.L. (2014). Muş İli ve Civarının Depremselliği, Kalkınma Yolunda Doğal Afetler Raporu, Van, Doğu Anadolu Kalkınma Ajansı.
  • Dhout, D., Chorowicz, J. 2006. Review of the Neotectonics of the Eastern Turkish-Armenian Plateau By Geomorphic Analysis of Digital Elevation Model Imagery, International Journal of Earth Science, 95, 34-9.
  • Dölek, İ. (2014). Muş Depremleri (Eylül 2013) ve Muş İlinin Depremselliği, Makalelerle Muş. Muş, Muş Alparaslan Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Enescu, B. & Ito, K. (2002). Spatial Analysis of the Frequency Distribution and Decay Rate of Aftershock Activity of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, 54, 847-859.
  • Everden, J.F. (1970). Study of Regional Seismicity and Associated Problems. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 60, 393-446.
  • Frohlick, C. & Davis, S. (1993). Telesismic b-Values: or, Much About 1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98, 631-644.
  • Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.F. (1954). Seismicity of the Earth and Related Phenomena (Second Printed), Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.F. (1956). Earthquake Magnitude, Intensity, Energy and Acceleration. Bulletin of Seismology Society of America, 46, 105-145.
  • Işık, E. (2012, December). Seismicity of Mus Province, 3rd International Science Technology and Engineering Conference (ISTE-C 2012), Dubai.
  • Işık, E., Aydın, M.C., Bakış, A., Özlük, H.M. (2012). Bitlis ve Civarındaki Faylar ve Bölgenin Depremselliği, Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(2): 153-169.
  • Kadirioğlu, F.T., Kartal, R.F., Albayrak, H. Ve Çeken, U. (2011, Nisan). 22 Şubat 2011 Muş-Bulanık Deprem Etkinliği, 64. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı, Ankara.
  • Ketin, İ. (1977). Van Gölü ile İran Sınırı Arasındaki Bölgede Yapılan Jeoloji Gözlemlerinin Sonuçları Hakkında Kısa Bir Açıklama, Türkiye Jeoloji Kurumu Bülteni, Ankara, 20:79-85.
  • Kijko, A. and Graham, G. (1998). Parametric-historic Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part I: Estimation of Maximum Regional Magnitude mmax, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 152, 413-442.
  • Kijko, A. and Sellevol, M.A. (1989). Estimation of Earthquakes Hazard Parameters From Incomplete Data Files. Part I. Utilization of Extreme and Complete Catalogs with Different Thereshold Magnitudes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 79, 3, 645-654.
  • Kijko, A. and Sellevol, M.A. (1992). Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Flies, Part II. Incorporation of Magnitude Heterogeneity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 82, 120-134.
  • Kijko, A. and Singh, M. (2011). Statistical Tools for Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Estimation, Acta Geophysica, 59, 4, 674-700.
  • Lomnitz, C. and Sing, S.L. (1976). Earthquake and Earthquake Prediction in Seismic Risk and Engineering Decisions, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam: 3-30.
  • McNally, K.C. and James, D.E. (1989). Earthquakes and Seismicity, The Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, 308-315.
  • Miyamura, S. (1962). Magnitude-Frequency Relations and its Bearing to Geotectonics, Proceedings of the Japan Academy, 38, 27-30.
  • Mogi, K. (1967). Earthquakes and Fractures. Tectonophysics, 5, 35-55.
  • Örgülü, G:, Aktar, M., Türkelli, N., Sandvol, E., Barazangi, M. (2003). Contribution to the seismotectonics of the Eastern Anatolian Plateau from Moderate and Small Size Events, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (24) :1-12.
  • Papazachos, B.C. & Papazahou, C.B. (1997). The Earthquakes of Greece, Ziti Oublication Thessaloniki, 340 p, Greece.
  • Papazachos, B.C. (1999). An Alternative Method for a Reliable Estimation of Seismicity with an Application in Greece and The Surrounding Area, Bulletin of Seismology Society of America, 89, 111-119.
  • Pearce, J.A., Bender, J.F., De Long, S.E., Kidd, W.S.F., Low, P.J., Güner, Y., Şaroğlu, F., Yılmaz, Y., Moorbath, S., Mitchell J.G. (1990). Genesis of Collision Volcanism in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 20 December 1990, 44(1-2): 189-229.
  • Pisarenko, V.F. (1991). Statistical Evaluation of Maximum Possible Magnitude, Izvestiya, Earth Physics, 27, 757-763.
  • Poisson, S.D. (1838). Recherches Sur la Probabilite Des Jugements en Matieres Criminelles et Matire Civile, Paris, France, Elibron Classic Series.
  • Reasenberg, P.A. (1985). Second-order Moment of Central California Seismicity, 1969-1982, Journal of Geophysical Research, 90 (B7), 5479-5495.
  • Scholz, C.H. (1968). The Frequency-Magnitude Relation of Micrifracturing in Rocks and its Relation to Earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58, 399-415.
  • Shi, Y. & Bolt, B.A. (1982). The Standart Error of the Magnitude-Frequency b-value, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72, 1677-1687.
  • Sobiesiak, M. (2000). Fault Plane Structure of the Antofagasta, Chile, Earthquake of 1995, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 577-600.
  • Şaroğlu, F., Emre, Ö., Boray, A. (1987). Türkiye’nin Diri Fayları ve Depremsellikleri, Ankara, MTA,
  • Turcotte, D.L. (1986). A Fractal Model of Crustal Deformation, Tectonophysics, 132, 261-269.
  • Udias, A. & Mezcua, J. (1997). Fundamentos De Geofisica, Qe 501, Madrid, Alianza Editorial.
  • Westerhaus, M., Wyss, M., Yılmaz, R. & Zschau, J. (2002). Correlating Variations of b values and crustal deformations during the 1990s may have Pinpointed the Rupture Initiation of the Mw=7.4 Izmit Earthquake of 1999 August 17, Geophysical Journal International, 148, 139-152.
  • Wiemer, S. & Katsumata, K. (1999). Spatial Variability of Seismicity Parameters in Aftershock Zones, Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 13135-13151.
  • Wiemer, S. & Wyss, M. (1997). Mapping the Frequency-Magnitude Distribution in Asperities: An improved Technique to clculate recurennce times. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 15115-15128.
  • Wiemer, S. & Wyss, M. (2000). Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples From Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90, 4, 859-869.
  • Wiemer, S. (2001). A Software Package to Analyze Seismicity: Zmap, Seismological Research Letters, 72, 2, 374-383.
  • Wyss, M. (1973). Towards a physical understanding of the Earthquake Frequency Distribution, Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 31, 341-359.
  • Yücemen, M. S. (2011, Ekim). Olasılıksal Sismik Tehlike Analizi: Genel Bakış ve İstatistiksel Modellemede Dikkat Edilmesi Gerekli Hususlar, 1. Türkiye Deprem Mühendisliği ve Sismoloji Konferansı, Ankara, ODTÜ.

Spatial Distribution of the Seismicity Parameters and Maximum Magnitude Value of Muş Province and its Vicinity

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 135 - 154, 15.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.998195

Abstract

In the study, the seismicity parameters, spatial distribution of seismicity parameters and maximum magnitude value were determined in a circular area with a 200 km radius, which is centered in Mus (38.73ºN Latitude ve 41.49ºE Longitude). For this purpose, the earthquakes of magnitude M≥3.0 were used, which were taken from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute’s earthquake catalog, in the period time between 1900-2020. The study area was divided into 285 subregions as 0.25°Nx0.25°E r=0.25 for the determination of seismicity parameters and mapping. For each subregion, which could be calculated, the coefficient “b” in the Gutenberg-Richter was calculated using the maximum likelihood method, seismicity parameters were calculated according to Poisson Method rules. As a result of the calculation, a relatively low value of “b” changing in the range of 0.60≤b≤0.97, was seen. It was determined that the recurrence periods of earthquakes with magnitude values of Mw=5.5 ve Mw=6.0 changing in the range of 10≤Tr≤290 and 25≤Tr≤775, respectively. For the same magnitude values, the average hazard ratio values were calculated as 0,80 and 0.74, respectively in 50 and 100 year time periods. It was determined that the range of 7.2≤mmax≤7.3 was possible-reliable and Kijko-Sellevol-Bayes theory was more suitable, as a result of the evaluations in order to determine the “mmax” value for the whole study region.  

References

  • Abercrombie, R.E. (1996). The Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes Recorded with Deep Seismometers at Cajon Pass, Southern California. Tectonophys, 261, 1-7.
  • Abramowitz, M., and Stegun, I.A. (1970). Handbook of Mathematical Functions (9th ed.), New York, Dover Publications.
  • Aki, K. (1965). Maximum Likelihood Estimate of b in the Formula logN=a-bM and its Confidence Limits, Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, 43, 237-239.
  • Akyüz, S., Sancar, T., Zabcı, C. (2010). Karlıova Üçlü Eklemi Civarında Göynük Fayı (Bingöl) ve Varto Fayının (Muş) Morfotektoniği Fay Geometrisi ve Kayma Hızı. TÜBİTAK Proje No: 109y/160, İstanbul.
  • Amelung, F. and King, G. (1997). Earthquake Scaling Laws for Creeping and Non-Creeping Faults, Geophysical Research Letters, 24, 507-510.
  • Bath, M. (1983). Earthquake Magnitude-Recent Research and Current Trends, Earth-Science Reviews, 17, 315-398.
  • Bozkurt, E. (2001). Neotectonics of Turkey-a Synthesis, Geodinamica Acta, 14, 3-30.
  • Chouliaras, G. (2009). Seismicity Anomalies Prior to 8 June 2008, Mw=6.4 Earthquake in Western Greece, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9, 327-335.
  • Cramer, H. (1961). Mathematical Methods of Statistics, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Demirci, A. & Ekinci, Y.L. (2014). Muş İli ve Civarının Depremselliği, Kalkınma Yolunda Doğal Afetler Raporu, Van, Doğu Anadolu Kalkınma Ajansı.
  • Dhout, D., Chorowicz, J. 2006. Review of the Neotectonics of the Eastern Turkish-Armenian Plateau By Geomorphic Analysis of Digital Elevation Model Imagery, International Journal of Earth Science, 95, 34-9.
  • Dölek, İ. (2014). Muş Depremleri (Eylül 2013) ve Muş İlinin Depremselliği, Makalelerle Muş. Muş, Muş Alparaslan Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Enescu, B. & Ito, K. (2002). Spatial Analysis of the Frequency Distribution and Decay Rate of Aftershock Activity of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, 54, 847-859.
  • Everden, J.F. (1970). Study of Regional Seismicity and Associated Problems. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 60, 393-446.
  • Frohlick, C. & Davis, S. (1993). Telesismic b-Values: or, Much About 1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98, 631-644.
  • Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.F. (1954). Seismicity of the Earth and Related Phenomena (Second Printed), Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.F. (1956). Earthquake Magnitude, Intensity, Energy and Acceleration. Bulletin of Seismology Society of America, 46, 105-145.
  • Işık, E. (2012, December). Seismicity of Mus Province, 3rd International Science Technology and Engineering Conference (ISTE-C 2012), Dubai.
  • Işık, E., Aydın, M.C., Bakış, A., Özlük, H.M. (2012). Bitlis ve Civarındaki Faylar ve Bölgenin Depremselliği, Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(2): 153-169.
  • Kadirioğlu, F.T., Kartal, R.F., Albayrak, H. Ve Çeken, U. (2011, Nisan). 22 Şubat 2011 Muş-Bulanık Deprem Etkinliği, 64. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı, Ankara.
  • Ketin, İ. (1977). Van Gölü ile İran Sınırı Arasındaki Bölgede Yapılan Jeoloji Gözlemlerinin Sonuçları Hakkında Kısa Bir Açıklama, Türkiye Jeoloji Kurumu Bülteni, Ankara, 20:79-85.
  • Kijko, A. and Graham, G. (1998). Parametric-historic Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part I: Estimation of Maximum Regional Magnitude mmax, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 152, 413-442.
  • Kijko, A. and Sellevol, M.A. (1989). Estimation of Earthquakes Hazard Parameters From Incomplete Data Files. Part I. Utilization of Extreme and Complete Catalogs with Different Thereshold Magnitudes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 79, 3, 645-654.
  • Kijko, A. and Sellevol, M.A. (1992). Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Flies, Part II. Incorporation of Magnitude Heterogeneity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 82, 120-134.
  • Kijko, A. and Singh, M. (2011). Statistical Tools for Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Estimation, Acta Geophysica, 59, 4, 674-700.
  • Lomnitz, C. and Sing, S.L. (1976). Earthquake and Earthquake Prediction in Seismic Risk and Engineering Decisions, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam: 3-30.
  • McNally, K.C. and James, D.E. (1989). Earthquakes and Seismicity, The Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, 308-315.
  • Miyamura, S. (1962). Magnitude-Frequency Relations and its Bearing to Geotectonics, Proceedings of the Japan Academy, 38, 27-30.
  • Mogi, K. (1967). Earthquakes and Fractures. Tectonophysics, 5, 35-55.
  • Örgülü, G:, Aktar, M., Türkelli, N., Sandvol, E., Barazangi, M. (2003). Contribution to the seismotectonics of the Eastern Anatolian Plateau from Moderate and Small Size Events, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (24) :1-12.
  • Papazachos, B.C. & Papazahou, C.B. (1997). The Earthquakes of Greece, Ziti Oublication Thessaloniki, 340 p, Greece.
  • Papazachos, B.C. (1999). An Alternative Method for a Reliable Estimation of Seismicity with an Application in Greece and The Surrounding Area, Bulletin of Seismology Society of America, 89, 111-119.
  • Pearce, J.A., Bender, J.F., De Long, S.E., Kidd, W.S.F., Low, P.J., Güner, Y., Şaroğlu, F., Yılmaz, Y., Moorbath, S., Mitchell J.G. (1990). Genesis of Collision Volcanism in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 20 December 1990, 44(1-2): 189-229.
  • Pisarenko, V.F. (1991). Statistical Evaluation of Maximum Possible Magnitude, Izvestiya, Earth Physics, 27, 757-763.
  • Poisson, S.D. (1838). Recherches Sur la Probabilite Des Jugements en Matieres Criminelles et Matire Civile, Paris, France, Elibron Classic Series.
  • Reasenberg, P.A. (1985). Second-order Moment of Central California Seismicity, 1969-1982, Journal of Geophysical Research, 90 (B7), 5479-5495.
  • Scholz, C.H. (1968). The Frequency-Magnitude Relation of Micrifracturing in Rocks and its Relation to Earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58, 399-415.
  • Shi, Y. & Bolt, B.A. (1982). The Standart Error of the Magnitude-Frequency b-value, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72, 1677-1687.
  • Sobiesiak, M. (2000). Fault Plane Structure of the Antofagasta, Chile, Earthquake of 1995, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 577-600.
  • Şaroğlu, F., Emre, Ö., Boray, A. (1987). Türkiye’nin Diri Fayları ve Depremsellikleri, Ankara, MTA,
  • Turcotte, D.L. (1986). A Fractal Model of Crustal Deformation, Tectonophysics, 132, 261-269.
  • Udias, A. & Mezcua, J. (1997). Fundamentos De Geofisica, Qe 501, Madrid, Alianza Editorial.
  • Westerhaus, M., Wyss, M., Yılmaz, R. & Zschau, J. (2002). Correlating Variations of b values and crustal deformations during the 1990s may have Pinpointed the Rupture Initiation of the Mw=7.4 Izmit Earthquake of 1999 August 17, Geophysical Journal International, 148, 139-152.
  • Wiemer, S. & Katsumata, K. (1999). Spatial Variability of Seismicity Parameters in Aftershock Zones, Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 13135-13151.
  • Wiemer, S. & Wyss, M. (1997). Mapping the Frequency-Magnitude Distribution in Asperities: An improved Technique to clculate recurennce times. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 15115-15128.
  • Wiemer, S. & Wyss, M. (2000). Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples From Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90, 4, 859-869.
  • Wiemer, S. (2001). A Software Package to Analyze Seismicity: Zmap, Seismological Research Letters, 72, 2, 374-383.
  • Wyss, M. (1973). Towards a physical understanding of the Earthquake Frequency Distribution, Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 31, 341-359.
  • Yücemen, M. S. (2011, Ekim). Olasılıksal Sismik Tehlike Analizi: Genel Bakış ve İstatistiksel Modellemede Dikkat Edilmesi Gerekli Hususlar, 1. Türkiye Deprem Mühendisliği ve Sismoloji Konferansı, Ankara, ODTÜ.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Nazlı Ceyla Anadolu Kılıç 0000-0002-8769-3510

Early Pub Date June 15, 2022
Publication Date June 15, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Anadolu Kılıç, N. C. (2022). Muş İli ve Çevresinin Depremsellik Parametrelerinin Uzaysal Dağılımı ve Maksimum Magnitüd Değeri. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(1), 135-154. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.998195