Meteorolojik parametreler ile COVID-19 vakalarının yayılması arasındaki ilişkinin istatistiksel bir analizi: Türkiye ve İtalya karşılaştırması
Öz
Bu çalışma, meteorolojik parametrelerin Türkiye ve İtalya ülkelerinde korona virüsün yayılmasına etkilerini istatistiksel olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Veri analizi için çok faktörlü ANOVA testi bu çalışmada kullanılmıştır. Türkiye için COVID-19 aktif vakalarına ait veriler, 10 Mart 2020 (ilk vaka olayı) ile 3 Mayıs 2020 arasındaki 55 günlük ve İtalya için COVID-19 aktif vakalarına ait veriler, 25 Şubat 2020 ile 3 Mayıs 2020 arasındaki 69 günlük verileri kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, meteoroloji parametreleri olarak ortalama sıcaklık (0C), nem (%), rüzgâr (mph) ve basınç (Hg) faktörleri ele alınmıştır. Meteorolojik parametre verileri, Türkiye'nin en kalabalık şehirlerindeki her bir parametreye ait verilerin ortalaması ile İtalya’nın en kalabalık iki şehrine (Roma ve Milan) ait veriler dikkate alınmıştır. Varyans analizi kullanılarak COVID-19 vakalarına ait verileri (Türkiye için R2 = 0.307; F-oranı = 5.6581 prob> .0008, 55 gözlem ve İtalya için R2= 0.437; F-ratio=3.6581 prob> .0182, 69 gözlem) en yüksek düzeyde önemli ölçüde analiz edilmiştir. Meteoroloji parametreleri arasında yer alan ortalama sıcaklık (°C) (t-oranı = 3.12; p <0.05) önemli ölçüde ve nem (%) faktörü (t-oranı =-1.186; p <0.10) şartlı olarak Türkiye’deki COVID-19 salgınını etkilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, İtalya için hem nem (%) (t-ratio=-1,38; p<0.0172) hem de rüzgâr (mph) (t-ratio=-2,57; p<0.0125) parametrelerinin COVID-19 salgınında önemli rol oynadığı tespit edilmiştir.
Kaynakça
- Atalan, Abdulkadir. 2018. “Türkiye Sağlık Ekonomisi Için İstatistiksel Çok Amaçlı Optimizasyon Modelinin Uygulanması.” İşletme Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 1(1):34–51.
- Atalan, Abdulkadir. 2020a. “Is the Lockdown Important to Prevent the COVID-19 Pandemic? Effects on Psychology, Environment and Economy-Perspective.” Annals of Medicine and Surgery 56(2020):38–42.
- Atalan, Abdulkadir. 2020b. “Is the Lockdown Important to Prevent the COVID-19 Pandemic? Effects on Psychology, Environment and Economy-Perspective.” Annals of Medicine and Surgery.
- Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin, Mete Tayanç, Kamil Erkan, and Abdulkadir Atalan. 2020. “Development of Nonlinear Optimization Models for Wind Power Plants Using Box-Behnken Design of Experiment: A Case Study for Turkey.” Sustainability 12(15):6017.
- Cássaro, Fábio A. M., and Luiz F. Pires. 2020. “Can We Predict the Occurrence of COVID-19 Cases? Considerations Using a Simple Model of Growth.” Science of The Total Environment 728:138834.
- Chen, Biqing, Hao Liang, Xiaomin Yuan, Yingying Hu, Miao Xu, Yating Zhao, Binfen Zhang, Fang Tian, and Xuejun Zhu. 2020. “Roles of Meteorological Conditions in COVID-19 Transmission on a Worldwide Scale.” MedRxiv.
- Dönmez, Cem Çağrı, and Abdulkadir Atalan. 2019. “Developing Statistical Optimization Models for Urban Competitiveness Index: Under the Boundaries of Econophysics Approach.” Complexity 2019:1–11.
- Lab24. 2020. “Coronavirus in Italia.” Retrieved (https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/).
- Liu, Jiangtao, Ji Zhou, Jinxi Yao, Xiuxia Zhang, Lanyu Li, Xiaocheng Xu, Xiaotao He, Bo Wang, Shihua Fu, Tingting Niu, Jun Yan, Yanjun Shi, Xiaowei Ren, Jingping Niu, Weihao Zhu, Sheng Li, Bin Luo, and Kai Zhang. 2020. “Impact of Meteorological Factors on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China.” Science of The Total Environment 726:138513.
- Ministry of Health. 2020. “Covid 19.” Retrieved (https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/).
- Nghiem, Long D., Branwen Morgan, Erica Donner, and Michael D. Short. 2020. “The COVID-19 Pandemic: Considerations for the Waste and Wastewater Services Sector.” Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering 100006.
- Paital, Biswaranjan, Kabita Das, and Sarat Kumar Parida. 2020. “Inter Nation Social Lockdown versus Medical Care against COVID-19, a Mild Environmental Insight with Special Reference to India.” Science of The Total Environment 728:138914.
- Saglietto, Andrea, Fabrizio D’Ascenzo, Giuseppe Biondi Zoccai, and Gaetano Maria De Ferrari. 2020. “COVID-19 in Europe: The Italian Lesson.” The Lancet 395(10230):1110–11.
- Shi, Peng, Yinqiao Dong, Huanchang Yan, Xiaoyang Li, Chenkai Zhao, Wei Liu, Miao He, Shixing Tang, and Shuhua Xi. 2020. “The Impact of Temperature and Absolute Humidity on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak - Evidence from China.” MedRxiv.
- Tobías, Aurelio, Cristina Carnerero, Cristina Reche, Jordi Massagué, Marta Via, María Cruz Minguillón, Andrés Alastuey, and Xavier Querol. 2020. “Changes in Air Quality during the Lockdown in Barcelona (Spain) One Month into the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic.” Science of The Total Environment 726:138540.
- Tosepu, Ramadhan, Joko Gunawan, Devi Savitri Effendy, La Ode Ali Imran Ahmad, Hariati Lestari, Hartati Bahar, and Pitrah Asfian. 2020. “Correlation between Weather and Covid-19 Pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia.” Science of The Total Environment 725:138436.
- Turkish Statitical Institute. 2020. “Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi.” Retrieved (https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=tr).
- Wang, Jingyuan, Ke Tang, Kai Feng, and Weifeng Lv. 2020. “High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19.” SSRN Electronic Journal.
- World Population Review. 2020a. “Milan Population 2020.” Retrieved (https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/milan-population/).
- World Population Review. 2020b. “Rome Population 2020.” Retrieved (https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/rome-population/).
- Worldometer. 2020. “Coronavirus.” Retrieved (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/turkey/).
A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Meteorological Parameters and the Spread of COVID-19 Cases: Comparison Between Turkey and Italy
Öz
This study aims to statistically analyze the effects of meteorological parameters on the spread of coronavirus in Turkey and Italy. The multi-factor ANOVA for data analysis was used for the present study. The data of the COVID-19 active cases were handled covering 55 days between March 10, 2020 (the first case incident) and May 3, 2020 for Turkey and covering 69 days between February 25, 2020, and May 3, 2020 for Italy. The parameters of meteorology include average temperature (0C), humidity (%), wind (mph) and pressure (Hg) in this study. The data of meteorological parameters were considered as the average of each factor’s data for the highest populated cities of Turkey and the two most populous cities (Rome and Milan) in Italy. The analysis of variance was significantly analyzed with COVID-19 pandemic (R2= 0.307; F-ratio=5.6581 prob > .0008 with 55 observations for Turkey, and R2= 0.437; F-ratio=3.6581 prob > .0182 with 69 observations for Italy), with the highest level. Among the parameters of the weather, average temperature (°C) has a significant impact on COVID-19 pandemic (t-ratio=3.12; p<0.05) and humidity (%) provisionally affects COVID-19 pandemic (t-ratio=-1.186; p<0.10) for Turkey. In addition, both humidity (%) (t-ratio=-1,38; p<0.0172) and wind (mph) (t-ratio=-2,57; p<0.0125) parameters have been found to play an important role in the COVID-19 outbreak for Italy.
Kaynakça
- Atalan, Abdulkadir. 2018. “Türkiye Sağlık Ekonomisi Için İstatistiksel Çok Amaçlı Optimizasyon Modelinin Uygulanması.” İşletme Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 1(1):34–51.
- Atalan, Abdulkadir. 2020a. “Is the Lockdown Important to Prevent the COVID-19 Pandemic? Effects on Psychology, Environment and Economy-Perspective.” Annals of Medicine and Surgery 56(2020):38–42.
- Atalan, Abdulkadir. 2020b. “Is the Lockdown Important to Prevent the COVID-19 Pandemic? Effects on Psychology, Environment and Economy-Perspective.” Annals of Medicine and Surgery.
- Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin, Mete Tayanç, Kamil Erkan, and Abdulkadir Atalan. 2020. “Development of Nonlinear Optimization Models for Wind Power Plants Using Box-Behnken Design of Experiment: A Case Study for Turkey.” Sustainability 12(15):6017.
- Cássaro, Fábio A. M., and Luiz F. Pires. 2020. “Can We Predict the Occurrence of COVID-19 Cases? Considerations Using a Simple Model of Growth.” Science of The Total Environment 728:138834.
- Chen, Biqing, Hao Liang, Xiaomin Yuan, Yingying Hu, Miao Xu, Yating Zhao, Binfen Zhang, Fang Tian, and Xuejun Zhu. 2020. “Roles of Meteorological Conditions in COVID-19 Transmission on a Worldwide Scale.” MedRxiv.
- Dönmez, Cem Çağrı, and Abdulkadir Atalan. 2019. “Developing Statistical Optimization Models for Urban Competitiveness Index: Under the Boundaries of Econophysics Approach.” Complexity 2019:1–11.
- Lab24. 2020. “Coronavirus in Italia.” Retrieved (https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/).
- Liu, Jiangtao, Ji Zhou, Jinxi Yao, Xiuxia Zhang, Lanyu Li, Xiaocheng Xu, Xiaotao He, Bo Wang, Shihua Fu, Tingting Niu, Jun Yan, Yanjun Shi, Xiaowei Ren, Jingping Niu, Weihao Zhu, Sheng Li, Bin Luo, and Kai Zhang. 2020. “Impact of Meteorological Factors on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China.” Science of The Total Environment 726:138513.
- Ministry of Health. 2020. “Covid 19.” Retrieved (https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/).
- Nghiem, Long D., Branwen Morgan, Erica Donner, and Michael D. Short. 2020. “The COVID-19 Pandemic: Considerations for the Waste and Wastewater Services Sector.” Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering 100006.
- Paital, Biswaranjan, Kabita Das, and Sarat Kumar Parida. 2020. “Inter Nation Social Lockdown versus Medical Care against COVID-19, a Mild Environmental Insight with Special Reference to India.” Science of The Total Environment 728:138914.
- Saglietto, Andrea, Fabrizio D’Ascenzo, Giuseppe Biondi Zoccai, and Gaetano Maria De Ferrari. 2020. “COVID-19 in Europe: The Italian Lesson.” The Lancet 395(10230):1110–11.
- Shi, Peng, Yinqiao Dong, Huanchang Yan, Xiaoyang Li, Chenkai Zhao, Wei Liu, Miao He, Shixing Tang, and Shuhua Xi. 2020. “The Impact of Temperature and Absolute Humidity on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak - Evidence from China.” MedRxiv.
- Tobías, Aurelio, Cristina Carnerero, Cristina Reche, Jordi Massagué, Marta Via, María Cruz Minguillón, Andrés Alastuey, and Xavier Querol. 2020. “Changes in Air Quality during the Lockdown in Barcelona (Spain) One Month into the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic.” Science of The Total Environment 726:138540.
- Tosepu, Ramadhan, Joko Gunawan, Devi Savitri Effendy, La Ode Ali Imran Ahmad, Hariati Lestari, Hartati Bahar, and Pitrah Asfian. 2020. “Correlation between Weather and Covid-19 Pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia.” Science of The Total Environment 725:138436.
- Turkish Statitical Institute. 2020. “Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi.” Retrieved (https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=tr).
- Wang, Jingyuan, Ke Tang, Kai Feng, and Weifeng Lv. 2020. “High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19.” SSRN Electronic Journal.
- World Population Review. 2020a. “Milan Population 2020.” Retrieved (https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/milan-population/).
- World Population Review. 2020b. “Rome Population 2020.” Retrieved (https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/rome-population/).
- Worldometer. 2020. “Coronavirus.” Retrieved (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/turkey/).
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Aralık 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2 |
